132.54% short on a Treasury bond — and BOE cops another +3.11%
December 2024
December’s ASIC data has a freakish outlier: the AusGov bond line GSBW34 jumped from 118.08% to 132.54% short (+14.46% MoM). In equities, the pressure points were clear — BOE climbed to 17.39% (+3.11%) and PLS to 14.00% (+2.36%), while IDX was aggressively covered from 4.71% to 0.74% (-3.97%). Across 632 names, the average short position barely moved to 1.40% (period average change: +0.06%), so the action was concentrated, not market-wide.
This Month's Analysis
132.54%. Short. On a Commonwealth bond line. GSBW34’s move from 118.08% to 132.54% (+14.46% MoM) is the kind of positioning that screams “macro plumbing” — duration hedges, repo mechanics, and crowded rate views — rather than a simple punt on a company. But once you strip out the bond weirdness, the equity tape is loud: shorts leaned harder into uranium ramp-ups and reloaded the lithium bellwether.
After GSBW34, the equity leaderboard is led by BOE at 17.39% short (+3.11%). That’s a fresh build, not a legacy position. Boss is in the market’s least forgiving phase — moving from story to delivery — with ramp-up risk at Honeymoon and execution risk around its broader production ambitions. If you want to see the pitch the shorts are leaning against, start with BOE’s materials: http://www.bossenergy.com/images/media/2973720.pdf and http://www.bossenergy.com/images/documents/Dec24-Quarterly-Results-Presentation.pdf. PDN sits at 15.37% (+0.31%). Heavy, but stable — more “hold the line” than a new raid. Paladin’s expanded footprint (including the Fission acquisition referenced in company context) gives bears plenty of angles: integration, capex discipline, and uranium price sensitivity. PLS is the other big tell. Shorts climbed from 11.63% to 14.00% (+2.36%). That’s a deliberate re-load in the sector’s liquid benchmark name — the trade isn’t “lithium is dead”, it’s “the clearing price still matters”. The rest of the top 10 reads like a map of where investors still don’t trust earnings. - SYR: 12.88% (-0.36%) — still crowded, but easing. - MIN: 12.54% (+0.56%) — lithium/iron ore exposure keeps it in the crosshairs. - IEL: 12.38% (-0.54%) — some covering, but 12%+ says the policy and student-flow debate isn’t going away. - DMP: 12.32% (+1.65%) — a clean consumer squeeze setup: cost pressure risk plus households still watching every dollar. - KAR: 10.68% (+2.05%) — shorts pushed in as oil exposure meets operational risk; Karoon’s own reporting is the next checkpoint (https://www.karoonenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/260127-2025-fourth-quarter-results.pdf). - DYL: 10.67% (+0.30%) — uranium stays a battleground, even when the month-on-month move is small.
Daily Snapshots
Top Shorted Stocks This Month
Biggest Risers
Stocks with the largest increase in short interest this month.
Biggest Fallers
Stocks with the largest decrease in short interest this month.
Movers Analysis
The risers were decisive — and they weren’t all in resources. - GSBW34: 118.08% → 132.54% (+14.46%). The bond line dwarfs everything else and sits outside the usual equity narrative. - MP1: 6.12% → 10.07% (+3.95%). That’s the equity surprise. A near-4% jump in a month is a statement that the market is challenging growth and margin assumptions in a higher-rate world. For reference, MP1’s investor deck is here: https://www.megaport.com/pdf/MP1_H1_FY25_Half_Year_Results_Investor_Presentation.pdf. - BOE: 14.29% → 17.39% (+3.11%). Shorts added into the ramp-up story. - PLS: 11.63% → 14.00% (+2.36%). Bears concentrated in the liquid lithium proxy. - KAR: 8.63% → 10.68% (+2.05%). Energy shorts weren’t just uranium. The fallers were even more revealing because they look like exits, not trims. - IDX: 4.71% → 0.74% (-3.97%). That’s a clean unwind. Whatever the bear catalyst was meant to be, funds stopped paying rent on the position. - VUL: 4.73% → 1.01% (-3.72%). - 29M: 4.36% → 0.90% (-3.46%). - PLL: 2.40% → 0.30% (-2.10%). - LOT: 5.34% → 3.35% (-1.99%). Put those together and you get the month’s real positioning message: the short book got more selective. Smaller and messier trades were covered (VUL, PLL, 29M, LOT), while the big, liquid battlegrounds (PLS, BOE) attracted fresh size.
Industry Trends
Two clusters dominated the top end. 1) Uranium: BOE (17.39%), PDN (15.37%), DYL (10.67%). This isn’t a one-stock hit job — it’s a sector-wide argument about timing and execution. When producers are ramping, the market stops paying for hope and starts marking to delivery. 2) “Energy transition” materials, led by lithium: PLS (14.00%) and MIN (12.54%). But the covering in VUL and PLL alongside the build in PLS is the key nuance: shorts are not spreading bets across the whole complex. They’re concentrating risk where liquidity is deepest and the trade is easiest to hold. Outside resources, DMP (12.32%, +1.65%) and IEL (12.38%, -0.54%) keep consumer and education in the frame. DMP’s build reads like earnings positioning; IEL’s small cover reads like risk management, not a change of mind.
Outlook
One thing to watch next month: whether MP1 stays above 10.07% short or gets covered quickly. If that position keeps building, it’s telling you the market wants a growth reset; if it snaps back, the squeeze risk is real.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can GSBW34 be 132.54% short?
Short interest can exceed 100% when the same security is borrowed, sold, and re-lent multiple times through the system. In bond markets this is often linked to repo and hedging activity rather than a simple directional bet.
Which ASX stock had the biggest short build in December 2024?
Megaport (MP1) rose from 6.12% to 10.07% short, a +3.95% month-on-month increase.
Why are shorts piling into Boss Energy (BOE)?
BOE rose from 14.29% to 17.39% short (+3.11%). The positioning lines up with execution risk as Boss ramps production at Honeymoon and progresses its broader production plans, where timelines, costs and realised pricing matter more than the narrative.
What does IDX dropping to 0.74% short mean?
IDX fell from 4.71% to 0.74% (-3.97%), which is consistent with funds closing out the trade rather than trimming. It suggests the downside catalyst didn’t arrive or the risk/reward stopped stacking up.
Is the lithium short trade growing or just shifting?
It’s shifting and concentrating. PLS increased from 11.63% to 14.00% (+2.36%) while VUL fell from 4.73% to 1.01% (-3.72%) and PLL fell from 2.40% to 0.30% (-2.10%).
Data sourced from ASIC short position reports (T+4 delayed). This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Short selling data may not reflect real-time market conditions.