August 2025
Boss Energy (BOE) is now the most shorted stock on the ASX at 20.87%, up a chunky +2.56% MoM — a big move for a name already heavily targeted. The other standout is IDP Education (IEL), where shorts jumped +2.94% to 15.15%, pushing it deeper into the top 10. Under the surface, the biggest positioning shifts were IPH (+3.80% to 5.44%), MVF (+3.55% to 8.03%) and DMP (+3.45% to 9.36%), while shorts bailed hard from LTR (-6.61% to 6.53%) and ALK (-4.03% to 0.13%).
The month’s loudest message is that shorts still want to fade the uranium trade — but they’re getting more aggressive about it. BOE is sitting at 20.87% short (up +2.56% MoM), the highest on the board, with PDN also elevated at 17.82% (+0.49%). When a stock already this crowded sees another 2–3% of the register sold short in a month, that’s not “noise”; it’s a deliberate bet that either the uranium price cools, ramp-ups disappoint, or the market has simply run too far ahead of fundamentals.
BOE (20.87%, +2.56%) is the headline. The most likely read is execution risk and valuation risk colliding: Boss is in ramp-up mode at Honeymoon and progressing Alta Mesa, and shorts love nothing more than a production story where timelines, recoveries, and costs can wobble. If you want the company’s own framing of the ramp and targets, Boss’ investor materials are here: http://www.bossenergy.com/images/documents/Dec24-Quarterly-Results-Presentation.pdf and http://www.bossenergy.com/images/media/2973720.pdf. PDN (17.82%, +0.49%) remains a core short battleground. With Paladin scaling Langer Heinrich and having expanded in Canada via the Fission deal (per company commentary), the bear case is usually less about “uranium is dead” and more about delivery risk and the market paying up for perfect execution. Paladin’s disclosures sit here: https://www.paladinenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Paladin-2025AnnualReport-Full-Web.pdf. IEL (15.15%, +2.94%) is the other big tell. Shorts piled in hard, and this looks like earnings/guidance positioning around student placement volumes, visa settings, and currency impacts. IDP is exposed to policy risk in key destination markets and any wobble in international student mobility can hit quickly. PLS (15.90%, -0.43%) and MIN (11.41%, -1.15%) show shorts easing slightly in lithium-linked names, but don’t confuse that with bullishness — these are still heavily shorted. The trimming reads more like risk management after a crowded trade than a sector all-clear. (For reference, Pilbara’s latest company report link provided is its December quarterly advisory: https://1pls.irmau.com/site/pdf/3bba2523-52c7-4c38-bc03-b945945d9698/December-2025-quarterly-activities-report-advisory.pdf.) PNV (12.08%, +0.85%) stays a favourite short: high expectations, healthcare execution risk, and the ever-present threat of a growth stock de-rating if momentum slows. PWH (10.22%, +2.10%) also saw a sharp lift — a sign shorts are leaning into cyclicality and valuation sensitivity in “quality industrial growth” names.
Stocks with the largest increase in short interest this month.
Stocks with the largest decrease in short interest this month.
The biggest riser was IPH: 1.64% → 5.44% (+3.80%). That’s a serious jump for a professional services name and screams “event-driven” positioning. IPH has CEO transition news on file (Andrew Blattman retiring) and FY25 results out (both linked), which can be enough for shorts to press if they think organic growth slows or margins get squeezed in a softer corporate activity cycle: https://www.iphlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2978820.pdf and https://www.iphlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2932588.pdf. Monash IVF (MVF) 4.48% → 8.03% (+3.55%) is another big move. Healthcare services shorts usually target earnings risk (volumes, pricing, cost inflation) and any regulatory or reputational overhang. A near-doubling of short interest in a month suggests the market is bracing for a catalyst. Domino’s (DMP) 5.91% → 9.36% (+3.45%) is classic consumer pressure positioning. If rates stay higher for longer, discretionary spend gets squeezed, and food/input costs plus wage pressure can bite. Shorts are effectively betting that the turnaround narrative (store growth, digital investment) won’t be enough to protect margins. The Star (SGR) 3.99% → 6.64% (+2.65%) is a reminder that regulatory risk is still a live wire for casinos. When shorts add this quickly, they’re usually leaning into uncertainty around compliance outcomes, remediation costs, and balance sheet stress. On the cover side, Liontown (LTR) 13.13% → 6.53% (-6.61%) is the month’s cleanest unwind. That’s not a gentle trim — it’s shorts heading for the exits. The most likely explanation is that the risk/reward shifted (price action, funding clarity, or reduced near-term downside), forcing crowded positions to de-risk. ALK 4.16% → 0.13% (-4.03%) is another near-full exit. Whether it’s improved confidence in project progress or simply a lack of fresh negative catalysts, shorts have basically walked away. (Company materials provided include ALK’s AGM presentation: https://investors.alkres.com/site/pdf/2b2766e7-2a4b-475a-bf8f-557f98a47621/2025-AGM-Managing-Director-amp-CEO39s-Presentation.pdf?Platform=ListPage.) IGO (-2.94% to 3.81%), NVX (-2.76% to 1.63%) and LYC (-2.49% to 3.09%) also saw meaningful covering — a sign the market is less confident pressing the “battery materials/rare earths downside” trade at current levels, even if the structural debates haven’t gone away.
Two sector stories dominate. First: uranium is still the ASX’s most crowded short theme. BOE at 20.87% and PDN at 17.82% tells you the market is split — longs are buying the nuclear supply story, while shorts are targeting the messy middle: ramp-ups, commissioning risk, and the chance the uranium price doesn’t bail out every operator. Second: consumer and services shorts are creeping up again. IEL (+2.94%), DMP (+3.45%), and SGR (+2.65%) all moved higher, and they’re exposed to the same macro pinch point: if rates and cost-of-living pressure linger, demand gets patchy and investors punish any hint of guidance risk. Meanwhile, the materials complex is mixed. Lithium-related shorts are still high (PLS 15.90%, MIN 11.41%), but the big covers in LTR and IGO suggest the easy money on “sell anything lithium” has already been made — from here, stock-specific balance sheet and execution details matter more than the headline commodity tape.
Watch for any uranium price volatility and company production updates — with BOE and PDN this crowded, small operational surprises can move the stocks fast. On the domestic side, the next inflation print and RBA messaging matter for DMP/IEL/SGR-style shorts that are effectively a bet on consumer and services earnings downgrades.
It means roughly one-fifth of BOE’s shares on issue are sold short, which can amplify moves both ways: bad news can cascade, but any positive surprise can force short covering and drive sharp rallies.
Because both are exposed to the same core risks: uranium price swings and operational delivery during ramp-ups. The trade is often “great theme, hard execution”.
It’s a clear signal the market is bracing for earnings or guidance risk tied to student mobility and policy settings; it doesn’t prove bad news is coming, but it raises the bar for the next update.
It typically means shorts are taking profit or cutting risk because the downside case is less compelling (or the position got too crowded and price action turned against them).
Very unusual for a professional services stock — a +3.80% jump suggests a catalyst-driven trade, likely linked to results and/or the CEO transition disclosed by the company.
Data sourced from ASIC short position reports (T+4 delayed). This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Short selling data may not reflect real-time market conditions.