There is no such thing as "the Australian housing market" right now. There are at least two, and they are moving in opposite directions.
Over the year to March 2026, the median established house price rose 2.41% in Greater Sydney and 1.80% in Greater Melbourne. Over the same twelve months it rose 25.04% in Greater Darwin, 21.95% in Greater Perth and 21.44% in Greater Brisbane.
Over the most recent quarter, Sydney fell 4.81% and Melbourne fell 4.71% — while Perth rose 4.17% and Darwin rose 5.63%.
That is not a national market with regional variation. That is a decoupling.
What this data is, and when it is from — Price figures are ABS median established house prices by capital city, as at 31 March 2026 and flagged preliminary — they are subject to revision. The rents and wages series run to June and March 2026 respectively. Dwelling approvals run to May 2026. The listing-level discounting data is from our own crawl of 500 suburbs and is current. Different sources, different lags: we have labelled each one rather than blending them into a single "as at" date.
The two-speed table
Median established house price, capital cities, March 2026:
| Capital | Median | Quarter | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Sydney | $1,485,000 | −4.81% | +2.41% |
| Greater Brisbane | $1,150,000 | +3.60% | +21.44% |
| Australian Capital Territory | $1,071,300 | +0.12% | +9.88% |
| Greater Perth | $1,000,000 | +4.17% | +21.95% |
| Greater Adelaide | $980,000 | +2.46% | +15.02% |
| Greater Melbourne | $850,000 | −4.71% | +1.80% |
| Greater Darwin | $750,000 | +5.63% | +25.04% |
| Greater Hobart | $740,000 | −1.33% | +3.50% |
Two things jump out.
The expensive markets are the weak ones. Sydney and Melbourne — the two largest and two of the three most expensive — are the only capitals that fell over both the quarter and, in Melbourne's case, barely rose over the year. Every market with a median under $1.15m except Hobart posted a double-digit annual gain.
Perth crossed $1,000,000. Greater Perth now has a median established house price at seven figures, having added nearly 22% in a year.
The gap between Sydney and Brisbane is now $335,000 — less than the entire median house price in Darwin.
Rents: the story has actually changed
The rental crisis has been one of the loudest housing stories in Australia. The data now says something quieter.
| Series | Latest | Quarter | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rents index (Australia, Jun 2026) | 102.3 | +0.82% | +3.54% |
| Wage price index (Australia, Mar 2026) | 160.4 | — | +3.28% |
Rents grew 3.54% over the year. Wages grew 3.28%. The gap is 0.26 percentage points.
That is not rents "falling", and it is not affordability being solved — a renter does not recover past increases because this year's was modest. But a single year of rent growth in line with wages does not undo what came before it, and this dataset does not measure the level of rents — only the rate of change. What it does show is a materially slower rate than the one that produced the crisis headlines.
At +0.82% for the quarter, rent growth is running at an annualised pace of roughly 3.3% — essentially in line with wages.
Supply: one state is responding, one is not
If prices and rents are the symptom, approvals are the closest thing this dataset has to a cause. Dwelling units approved, rolling twelve months to May 2026 versus the prior twelve months:
| State | Last 12m | Prior 12m | Change | Latest month vs series peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | 46,244 | 38,118 | +21.3% | 70% |
| NSW | 52,296 | 47,295 | +10.6% | 64% |
| VIC | 55,611 | 56,121 | −0.9% | 68% |
Queensland is building. Approvals are up more than a fifth year-on-year — and it is also the state with the second-largest annual price gain, which is the uncomfortable part: supply is responding to the price signal, well after the fact.
New South Wales is up a respectable 10.6%.
Victoria is flat to slightly negative, and it is the state where the median house price fell most over the quarter after Sydney.
The column that matters most, though, is the last one. Every one of these states is still approving between 64% and 70% of what it approved at its own peak. A 21% annual increase off a low base is still a low base. Queensland's rolling twelve-month total is 46,244; its best single month in the series was November 2025 at 4,852, implying a run-rate above 58,000.
Supply is improving. It has not recovered.
What is happening right now, at the listing level
The figures above are official statistics with lags measured in months. Our own price-drops tracker crawls listings across 500 suburbs and is current, which gives a read on what vendors are doing today rather than last quarter.
| Measure | National |
|---|---|
| Active listings tracked | 51,585 |
| Listings with a price reduction | 3,086 |
| Share discounted | 5.98% |
| Average reduction | 5.10% |
| Median reduction | 4.00% |
| Largest reduction | 40% |
| Median asking price | $829,000 |
| Median sold price | $955,000 |
Roughly one listing in seventeen currently carries a price cut, and the typical cut is 4%. In Victoria — the state with both the largest listing pool and the weakest quarterly price move among the big two — the rate is 5.99%, effectively identical to the national figure.
The most interesting line is the last pair. The median sold price ($955,000) is well above the median asking price ($829,000). That is what a market looks like when the better stock clears and the rest sits: sales are concentrated at the top of the range while cheaper listings accumulate. It is a composition effect, not evidence that everything sells above ask.
On causation, and why this piece does not claim any
Australian housing policy has been unusually active, and it is tempting to draw a straight line from any given reform to any given number above. This piece deliberately does not.
Everything here is an outcome measure: what prices, rents, approvals and listings actually did. Attributing those movements to specific policy changes requires isolating the policy from interest rates, migration, construction costs, land release, state planning decisions and investor sentiment — all of which moved over the same period, and none of which this dataset controls for.
What the data supports is a description: a decoupled two-speed price market, rent growth that has converged with wages, a partial and uneven supply response, and about 6% of current listings discounted. What it does not support is a claim about which lever produced which number.
We would rather publish the measurement and let you draw the causal conclusion than dress up an inference as a finding.
Where to look next
- The housing tracker has the national picture and drills into every state.
- Each state page — NSW, VIC, QLD, WA — breaks down to suburb level, with a choropleth you can recolour by price, Census and electoral data.
- The price-drops board is the live view: which suburbs, which agencies, and how deep the cuts are running.
- The economy explorer carries the approvals, wage and lending series used above, by state.
Sources: ABS median established house prices by capital city (March 2026, preliminary); ABS rents and wage price indices; ABS dwelling approvals by state (May 2026); Shorted residential listings crawl across 500 suburbs (current). Derived aggregates only — no source listing data is republished.