Market bulls are celebrating a 38.8% three-month rally in Pilbara Minerals shares, but short sellers are not covering. They are digging in, betting that a 39% revenue drop to $769 million R1 and a suspended dividend R1 represent the true state of play.
The lithium sector has shown signs of life, fuelled by speculation that the sector's cyclical downturn might finally be over 2. Pilbara Minerals added momentum by commissioning a new processing facility 3, which helped drive the stock to $6.48. Inside the company, directors showed their confidence by buying up shares in late May 4 and mid-June 2026 5. Yet, this optimism clashes directly with the grim reality of the company's FY25 numbers, which revealed a statutory loss after tax of $196 million R6 and forced management to pause shareholder payouts R1R7.
The data shows a classic standoff. While the share price climbed 38.8% over the past three months, short interest rose 2.87 percentage points to sit at 10.36%. This isn't a case of shorts fleeing a squeeze; the 30-day price-shorts correlation of 0.184 indicates that short positions are growing in tandem with the share price. With peer sector shorts averaging 9.43%, PLS is now a heavily targeted name. The ASIC T+4 delay means these figures reflect positions from late last week, but the upward slope suggests the bears aren't backing down.
Either the newly commissioned facility justifies the 39% rally, or the $196 million loss proves the shorts right. For now, both sides are doubling down.