The Lottery Corporation had 8.63% of its shares reported short on 30 September: 192,019,319 of the 2,225,771,703 on issue, in ASIC's daily aggregate report. R1 On 1 July the figure was 4.79%, or 106.7 million shares. R2 That is 80% more shares reported short in a quarter, and 18.4 days to cover at the 20-day average volume.
The build was not steady. The position fell to 4.29% on 6 August and was 4.58% on 19 August, the day the company reported, then rose: 6.14% on 31 August, 7.46% on 18 September and 8.63% on 30 September. From the 6 August low (95.5 million shares) the share count has doubled in eight weeks. The price went the other way, from $5.64 on 1 July to $4.87 on 30 September, down 13.7%.
Three things sit in that window. First, the results. FY26 revenue was $3,582.5 million, down 2.7%, and EBITDA before significant items $736.1 million, down 1.8%. There was no $100 million Powerball jackpot and no $50 million Oz Lotto jackpot, for the first time since FY21 and FY17 respectively, which the company called a "1 in c.45 year outcome" and estimated cost about $350 million of revenue. The Board held the full-year dividend at 16.5 cents, fully franked, a payout of 107% of NPAT before significant items. Net debt was 3.1 times EBITDA at June and, after the $1,145 million Victorian licence payment, will rise materially in the first half of FY27, likely beyond the 3.0 to 4.0 times target range. R3
Second, the law. The Interactive Gambling Amendment (Gambling Reform) Bill 2026 passed both Houses on 19 August and received assent on 26 August as Act No. 72 of 2026; it prohibits online keno and foreign matched lotteries. R4 TLC put online Keno at about 2% of group turnover and about $25 million of FY26 EBITDA, and said that if the bill passed without amendment the reforms would commence from 1 January 2027. R3 That statement came the day after the House agreed 26 Government and 45 Opposition amendments; the APH record lists none in the Senate, which passed the bill on 19 August. R4
Third, the licence. The 40-year Victorian extension, announced on 5 May, runs to 2068 and moves the next major renewal out to 2050. 5 The Victorian Auditor-General's report, tabled on 16 September, found nothing to suggest the government did not seek to optimise value for the state, no significant probity issues, and limited public transparency. R6
Then rates. The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September. R7 It was the fourth increase of 2026, after moves in February, March and May. 10 Kalkine wrote on 1 October that long-term bond yields were pushing toward their highest levels in well over a decade, that higher risk-free returns raise the hurdle for dividend-paying shares, and that TLC ended September near the low end of its yearly range. 8
None of this says who is short or why. ASIC publishes the aggregate four days after the reporting day and withholds short seller details. R9 A reported position is a count, not a motive; a crowded position is not a squeeze, and days to cover measures exit time at recent volume, nothing more.
Jumbo Interactive went the other way: 7.64% reported short on 2 September, 2.32% on 30 September, a cut of 5.32 percentage points in four weeks while its price fell from $7.08 to $5.90. One lottery short was built and another cut by about 70% in the same month.
The chart is live; the quoted figures stay pinned to 30 September. Later TLC position reports will show whether the build continued; the W40 report has the wider board at 28 September.
Disclosure analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell.