When this was written — On 15 July 2026. The figures are as at that date or earlier and have not been updated since.
Mesoblast has spent years testing the patience of its retail base, but a recent run of commercial milestones is finally testing the resolve of its short sellers. The biotech's three-month share price rally of 15.8% has yet to trigger a meaningful short squeeze.
The catalyst is Ryoncil. The drug delivered US$36 million in fourth-quarter net revenue, bringing its full-year total to US$115 million 1, which topped expectations 2. Meanwhile, clinical progress continues, with a trial for pediatric graft-versus-host disease hitting 300 patients 3 and the FDA clearing a registration trial for Duchenne muscular dystrophy 4. Even the directors are showing quiet confidence; Silviu Itescu exercised options in July 5, following on-market buying from other board members earlier in the year 67. It is a stark contrast to the commercial doubts that dogged the company during its half-year reporting R8.
Despite the positive news flow, short interest remains stubbornly high at 8.39%. This is well above the peer sector average of 5.01%. The 30-day price-to-short correlation sits at -0.729, confirming that as the price has climbed 19.3% over the past month to $2.35, the short position has barely budged, down a mere 0.12 percentage points from its 90-day average. The bears are refusing to cover, betting that the commercial test of scaling Ryoncil 9 will eventually sap the stock's momentum.
With the short position holding near its 90-day high of 8.98%, the stage is set for a protracted game of chicken between commercial reality and short-side conviction.