LOT at 22.90%: a 10-week short campaign gets crowded

This Week's Analysis

LOT didn’t just stay the most shorted stock on the ASX. Shorts hit it again. Short interest jumped from 19.94% to 22.90% (+2.95%) — the 10th straight weekly increase — and it landed as a +2.13-sigma move versus LOT’s own 13-week pattern 1. The price did its part too: down -13.33% for the week to $0.52 (range $0.49-$0.56) 2. This is what a campaign looks like.

At the top, the theme is “hard to exit”. • LOT: 22.90% short, 13.8 days-to-cover 1. • BOE: 15.29% (+1.31%) with 14.6 days-to-cover — and the stock slid -13.85% to $1.12 (range $1.10-$1.24) 1 2. Shorts are leaning into weakness. Then there’s the liquidity trap: DMP is 14.52% short (-0.28%) but sits on 31.8 days-to-cover 1. That’s not a trade you casually unwind. The rest of the top 10 is a mix of slow grinds and small trims: TLX eased to 13.89% (-0.91%) with 20.5 days-to-cover; GYG is 12.51% (-0.18%) with 20.9 days-to-cover; TWE is 12.48% (-0.15%) with 20.6 days-to-cover 1. CAR keeps stair-stepping higher to 12.03% (+0.25%) — the 13-week path from 6.38% to 12.03% is as steady as it gets — with 19.8 days-to-cover 1.

Movers Analysis

The biggest single-week shock was ORE: 2.98% to 10.23% (+7.25%) 1. The week included an ASX “Statement of CDIs on issue” (2026-06-11) — the kind of housekeeping update that can still trigger fast repositioning when the register is moving 3. Two risers were genuine statistical outliers: • IPH: 8.76% to 10.07% (+1.31%) on a +3.95 z-score — while the stock rose +7.07% to $4.24 (range $3.92-$4.34) 1 2. That’s shorts stepping in against strength. IPH’s HY26 numbers show profit from ordinary activities after tax attributable to members of $41.2 million and gross operating cashflows of $103.9 million, so this isn’t a “no fundamentals” short — it’s a view on what comes next 4. • LOT: 19.94% to 22.90% (+2.95%), +2.13 z-score, streak 10 weeks 1. MYX also popped on the stats: 1.49% to 2.82% (+1.32%) with a +2.27 z-score, even as the stock gained +9.05% to $2.41 (range $2.26-$2.49) 1 2. On the other side, the tape forced covers. • SDF: 3.14% to 1.97% (-1.17%) with a -7.42 z-score as the stock surged +28.75% to $5.15 (range $3.92-$5.40) 1 2. The move came in a week that included a trading halt and “Steadfast enters into Process Deed” (both 2026-06-10) 5. • MP1: 5.79% to 4.50% (-1.29%) with a -2.74 z-score as the stock jumped +17.71% to $18.88 (range $17.09-$19.69) 1 2. The week also carried a Retail Entitlement Offer Announcement and Booklet (2026-06-11) plus a cluster of substantial holder and quotation updates 6. And two “unwind despite pain” tells: NXT fell from 8.22% to 7.56% (-0.66%) for a 5-week streak lower (z-score -2.51) even as the stock dropped -11.06% to $14.56 (range $14.34-$15.83) 1 2. ILU slid from 7.36% to 6.67% (-0.69%) for a 4-week streak lower (z-score -3.24) while the stock fell -7.22% to $7.33 (range $6.81-$7.67) 1 2.