LOT still #1 at 22.81% — but shorts quietly rotate into TLX

This Week's Analysis

The week’s cleanest signal wasn’t at the top of the table — it was in the “boring” names. Atlas Arteria (ALX) saw shorts surge from 1.80% to 2.70% (+0.90%) right as takeover paperwork and substantial holder notices stacked up 1 3. When shorts lift into a live corporate situation, they’re usually betting the spread, the structure, or the timeline — not the toll roads.

At the pointy end, the leaderboard barely moved. LOT is still the standout at 22.81% short (WoW -0.27%) 1, and it’s hard to ignore that this comes alongside a Kayelekera project and funding update plus a suspension extension 4. DMP (14.33%, -0.08%) and BOE (13.73%, -0.25%) both eased, while TLX went the other way to 12.92% (+0.34%) and DRO lifted to 12.47% (+0.27%) 1. CAR sat at 12.20% with a -0.00% change — a rare week of complete stasis for a stock that’s often a battleground 1.

Movers Analysis

ALX was the biggest riser (+0.90%), and the timing lines up with the IFM takeover update and a string of substantial holding changes 3. In small caps, MAU jumped from 0.02% to 0.53% (+0.51%) as it headed for removal from the official list and scheme implementation — classic event-driven positioning 1 5. On the downside, the unwind in RIO (8.94% to 8.43%, -0.51%) stands out because it’s already a large, heavily-analysed name; shorts don’t usually move that much there without a reason to de-risk 1. RIO’s FY2025 numbers were hardly weak: underlying EBITDA of US$25,363 million and operating cash flow of US$16,832 million 7. MP1 also saw shorts trimmed from 5.84% to 5.38% (-0.46%) after substantial holder exits, despite H1 FY2026 revenue of $134.858 million (+26%) and a net loss of $19.072 million 1 8. NVX fell from 0.69% to 0.32% (-0.37%) even as it launched a share purchase plan and issued a cleansing notice — that looks like shorts stepping back ahead of fresh retail demand 1 9.