AGL cops a 4.50-sigma short hit — while BOE shorts sprint for the exit

This Week's Analysis

The week’s loudest short signal wasn’t LOT or DMP. It was AGL. Short interest in AGL surged from 1.45% to 4.80% (+3.35%) — a +4.50 z-score jump against its own 13-week pattern — and it’s sitting on 14.6 days-to-cover 1. That’s a chunky position to build in a week where the stock only slipped -1.19% to $8.32 2.

At the top of the leaderboard, LOT stayed nailed to 22.81% short (+0.00%) with 14.7 days-to-cover — still the maximum short position in the dataset, and still a crowded exit if the uranium tape turns 1. DMP is doing the opposite of a squeeze headline — it’s drifting lower in short interest to 13.90% (-0.16%). But the positioning is sticky: 33.9 days-to-cover is the most jammed exit in the top 10 1. If you’re looking for where a surprise could hurt, start there. A quieter but more structural build is 4DX: now 11.61% short (+0.20%) with 10.4 days-to-cover, after a 13-week climb from 1.21% to 11.61% 1. That’s happening even with H1 FY2026 revenue from ordinary activities of $2.852 million (down (1%) to 2,852) and underlying SaaS revenue up 31% vs pcp (margin exceeding 90%) 3. Energy in the top 10 is a split screen. BOE de-crowded hard to 11.86% (-2.25%) while PDN held elevated at 11.40% (-0.12%) with 13.2 days-to-cover 1.

Movers Analysis

This week had two types of moves: forced covering where prices ran, and fresh crowding where shorts decided the risk/reward had flipped. Start with the covers. BOE was the cleanest: short interest fell from 14.11% to 11.86% (-2.25%), a -2.92 z-score move, as the stock jumped +25.74% to $1.27 1 2. The company also put out “Boss Achieves FY26 Guidance & Accelerates Feasibility Study” on 2026-07-03 — the sort of headline that makes shorts reduce first and tidy up the thesis later 4. NEU was even more extreme on the stats: shorts dropped from 5.94% to 4.96% (-0.98%), a -6.35 z-score move and the 4th consecutive weekly fall, while the share price surged +37.21% to $16.74 1 2. The catalyst on the tape was “DAYBU recommended for approval in the European Union” (2026-06-29) 5. ZIP kept the same rhythm: 10.17% to 8.83% (-1.34%), a -3.30 z-score move and the 3rd consecutive weekly fall, with the stock up +12.15% to $3.23 1 2. In its H1 FY2026 report, ZIP disclosed $136.4 million of positive cash flows from operations 6. Now the crowding. ALD is the most sustained campaign on the risers list: 1.93% to 2.96% (+1.03%), a +6.35 z-score jump and the 6th straight weekly rise — even as the stock rose +4.05% to $33.88 1 2. It also announced “Ampol Completes Acquisition of EG Australia” on 2026-07-01 7. JHX saw shorts step in too: 2.72% to 3.56% (+0.84%), a +3.20 z-score move (2-week streak), while the share price eased -1.23% to $37.01 1 2. And KGL was the classic capital-raise pressure setup: 0.05% to 0.66% (+0.61%), a +4.02 z-score jump, with the stock down -16.67% to $0.20 1 2. The company’s “Entitlement Offer Opens - Offer Booklet” landed on 2026-07-03 8.