Minervini Trend Template
Stocks already in a Stage 2 uptrend: stacked moving averages, well off their lows, close to their highs and leading the market.
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Stocks already in a Stage 2 uptrend: stacked moving averages, well off their lows, close to their highs and leading the market.
Rules v1 (fc794d11) · Recipe mtt-r1 (a408739b) · engine 1.1.1 · Long only
Universe: ASX ordinary shares
rules v1 fc794d11 · recipe mtt-r1 a408739b · engine 1.1.1 · ASIC report to 2 Nov
AUD · after costs
Hypothetical results from rules applied to historical data, not a record of trading. Not financial advice.
Total return: dividends as adjusted by the price vendor, or credited in cash on the ex-date from ASX dividend notices where the vendor has not adjusted them (notices from 11 Sep 2024); franking excluded; vs S&P/ASX 200 Gross Total Return.
ASIC basis: Latest complete ASIC report published by each session (T+4 sessions on a calendar derived from the data; assumed for the whole history); values as later revised; original publications not kept.
Reference: The reference is built from the same price history with the same gaps. If a strategy beats the ASX 200 but not the reference, the edge may be the data rather than the rules. Gaps are uneven across stocks, so subtracting the reference does not remove survivorship bias.
Survivorship: Prices are missing for companies that delisted before about 2025. Heavily shorted companies that later failed are over-represented among them, so these results flatter the strategy, most in the earlier years; by how much cannot be measured.
Coverage is measured on ASIC-reported names only; the gap cannot be measured for companies that were never reported short.
In-sample · rules frozen 2026-11-06: the figures to 2026-11-05 are in-sample; no paper track is recorded yet.
Hypothetical results from rules applied to historical data, not a record of trading. Not financial advice.
Total return: dividends as adjusted by the price vendor, or credited in cash on the ex-date from ASX dividend notices where the vendor has not adjusted them (notices from 11 Sep 2024); franking excluded; vs S&P/ASX 200 Gross Total Return.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | −6.1% | +11.4% | +5.5% | −10.6% | +7.7% | +8.6% | −10.0% | −2.6% | +4.6% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +6.7% |
| 2025 | −2.1% | −8.9% | +4.7% | −8.5% | +4.7% | −1.9% | −4.7% | +15.7% | +5.8% | +3.3% | −0.9% | +3.1% |
| 2026 | +5.8% | +3.3% | −7.3% | +2.4% | +1.3% | +13.1% | −22.6% | +18.1% | +6.7% | −18.4% | −2.2%Month to date | Not elapsed |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Before window | Before window | Before window | Before window | +8.3% | −1.3% | +18.5% | −8.1% | +5.7% | +1.9% | −1.1% | +1.8% |
| 2020 | +8.9% | +10.3% | −20.6% | +10.3% | −9.0% | −7.2% | −9.1% | +7.7% | +0.9% | +13.0% | +0.3% | −13.1% |
| 2021 | +6.4% | −1.2% | +7.6% | −17.6% | −7.0% | −4.2% | −5.8% | +11.8% | +6.1% | −15.6% | +3.5% | −12.1% |
| 2022 | −13.4% | −19.6% | +15.8% | +7.6% | −17.4% | −23.6% | +6.6% | +14.5% | −10.4% | +0.7% | +4.5% | −9.7% |
| 2023 | +0.8% | −10.8% | −2.8% | +1.4% | −12.4% | 0.0% | −3.4% | −8.9% | −11.7% | −12.4% | +11.0% | −10.9% |
Coverage measured on ASIC-reported names only · flatters results
Prices are missing for companies that delisted before about 2025. Heavily shorted companies that later failed are over-represented among them, so these results flatter the strategy, most in the earlier years; by how much cannot be measured.
Coverage is measured on ASIC-reported names only; the gap cannot be measured for companies that were never reported short.
Coverage (all reported) 98% (2025) → 99% (2026) · flatters results; by how much cannot be measured; the gap cannot be measured for companies that were never reported short
| Year | All reported (this strategy’s measure) | Priced name-days | Delisting exits | CA exits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | ? (Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.) | n/a | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 98% | 0 of 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | 99% | 0 of 0 | 2 | 0 |
Qualifying coverage by year
Measured on ASIC-reported names only; delisted companies that were never shorted are missing and cannot be counted.
Monthly qualifying coverage: hatched under 80%
Entries cancelled: 129 cancelled cash, 27 cancelled untraded
Pre-re-sync consolidations (an ASIC share step of 1.8x or more with a continuous vendor price): days to cover before them is overstated by the factor. It is a non-core ranking input for Crowded-Short, and no decision uses the later step.
| Change | CAGR | Excess over benchmark | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costs doubled | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| ASIC publication two sessions later | n/a | n/a | applies to the Crowded-Short recipe only |
| Delisted positions exit at zero | −19.1% | −27.8 pp | Does not beat XJT |
| Entry one session later | +1.7% | −7.0 pp | Does not beat XJT |
| Mockup costs (flat 10 + 5 bps per side) flatter small-cap breakouts | −7.5% | −16.1 pp | Does not beat XJT |
Costs: 10 bps brokerage (min A$10) + 5-50 bps spread by liquidity, per side. The flat 10 + 5 bps alternative is labelled "the mockup's flat costs flatter small-cap breakouts".
No paper track to compare yet